Stratfor's War Diary

Since Russian officials know perfectly well that Washington can't back off very easily at this point from an attack on Iraq, and since Bush knows equally well that Hussein is not going to unambiguously disarm, the ballet is a bit baffling -- but only a bit. The United States now is dickering with Moscow over the price it will take to get Russia's buy-in to the war. For the Kremlin, the key issues remain Iraq's debt to Russia and the future of Russian oil concessions in Iraq. But those are the small questions.

The big question that Russian President Vladimir Putin must deal with is the future of the U.S.-Russian relationship. Putin must show the Russian military and security apparatus that he actually can deliver substantial, geopolitical value from his flirtation with Washington. He knows that the United States will attack, but he must get something substantial in return for his support. One issue is the Russian sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union and U.S. respect for it. That is symbolized by the entire issue of NATO expansion: It will be very tough for Putin to support U.S. action in Iraq and then have NATO expand once again, possibly into the former Soviet Union